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Monday 15 March 2010

Book: Resilience Engineering

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A book edited by Erik Hollnagel, David D. Woods and Nancy Leveson (and containing chapters by these and many other authors), from 2006, about an improved approach to safety management.

"Resilience Engineering" is a well-integrated collection of quite thorough explorations and analyses of safety management in complex systems, both on the theoretical level as well as in the form of case studies. Even though the title might give an initial impression of the book being focused on technical systems, it is actually quite universally applicable and looks at techno-social systems as wholes, mainly in the form of technologically oriented organizations.

The core idea of "Resilience Engineering" is to move the field of safety management from the kind of design-time analysis that has been expected to produce "demonstrably safe" systems that should be safe within predescribed working conditions but in reality still experience failures due to the unpredictability and complexity of the real world, to the construction of adaptively resilient systems that are actively monitoring and adjusting for dangerous deviations.

Also, the book calls for better accident models that do not view failures as simply breakdowns or deviations of the components from the design specifications, but also as events that may easily arise as occasional unexpected consequences of interactions between otherwise acceptably working parts: "Rather than looking for causes we should look for concurrences, and rather than seeing concurrences as exceptions we should see them as normal and therefore also as inevitable. This may at times lead to the conclusion that even though an accident happened nothing really went wrong, in the sense that nothing happened that was out of the ordinary. Instead it is the concurrence of a number of events, just on the border of the ordinary, that constitutes an explanation of the accident or event."

Additionally, the book notes that even if the theoretical basis for understanding and preventing the majority of failures would be well-developed and widely available (which it isn't), there is still a major practical concern to tackle: safety management incurs an additional cost for the system, and in real life the pressing need for higher efficiency keeps (justifiably) trying to minimize all costs. Therefore, "from a risk management perspective, the key question is how to keep concern for risk alive when things look safe". And this can be particularly difficult due to the effectively working safety measures seeming unnecessary to a superficial observer for the very reason that those measures successfully prevent the failures and leave an impression of a safe environment. Or, as the book puts it: "superficially a safety manager’s job is to handle irony: the core of a good safety culture is a self-defeating prophecy, and a whistle blower’s ultimate achievement is to be wrong". The solution is to create a well-developed and strong safety culture that avoids the erosion of critical safety measures in the endless push for efficiency.

I definitely found the book educative and enjoyable, and would recommend it to anybody who has a deeper interest in safety management and in the adaptivity issues of (complex) systems.

More info about the book at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0754649040/

Saturday 5 December 2009

Book: Transcend

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A book by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, from 2009, about keeping a good health and extending your expected lifetime.

Modern healthcare is becoming more and more infused and boosted by the information technology, or, in some sense, it IS becoming an information technology itself by moving from the phase of trial-and-error to the phase of data- and simulation-based design of interventions. Ray and Terry believe that this will lead the healthcare to follow the same kind of exponential growth as various areas of IT have enjoyed, which in turn will lead to radically more efficient health maintenance and healing methods already within a few next decades (new efficient drugs, RNA interference, gene addition, pluripotent stem cell based therapies, later also medical nanobots). Their idea is that during the next few decades you could look at your life as being either behind or in front of a moving frontier of extreme longevity -- if you keep yourself in good enough health until the next level of healthcare arrives in around 10-15 years, then your health and expected lifetime will be boosted enough by the new methods of that level to reach the yet another level of healthcare arriving in the 2030-ies, where it will be boosted again, and so on. This book is intended to help you cross the "Bridge One".

Regardless of whether Ray's and Terry's predictions turn out to be correct or not, the book "Transcend" is packed with useful information about living a healthier life. The suggestions are so numerous and detailed that it is difficult to summarize them here, but, broadly speaking, the main topics are:

  • Assessing your state frequently and thoroughly enough -- self-assessments, medical examinations, lab tests -- and using this information to adjust your lifestyle, eating, etc.
  • Keeping the stress under control.
  • Paying attention to what and how much you eat.
  • Taking appropriate supplements.
  • Exercising regularly: aerobical, strength, and stretching.
  • Minimizing toxin contact / intake.

All these are explained with plenty of details and guidelines, based on the very latest scientific knowledge they had at hand. The latter means, however, that not all the suggestions are based on long-term human experiments, and they do acknowledge themselves that some viewpoints might change in time and that some of their suggestions, especially with regard to supplements, are considerably different from the common FDA approved ones. But they do promise to keep interested readers up to date with latest developments and research results via an electronic newsletter (that anybody can subscribe to at http://www.kurzweilai.net/).

A possible conflict of interests can be found in the fact that Ray and Terry also have a supplement-selling business where you can buy the supplements they suggest in the book, but knowing a bit about Ray's background I would rather assume that their idea was not to make a lot of money by suggesting the supplements, but he just wanted to have a reliable source of those at hand, both for himself and for the people they are advising (I haven't bought anything from there so far, though, in case you're wondering).

All in all, I would highly recommend this book to anyone who is interested in maintaining a good health AND who does not freak out when seeing occasional complex-sounding words and phrases like gamma-tocopherol, prostaglandin-E3 or single photon emission computed tomography, AND who has enough education and critical mind to understand that not all suggestions can be taken as the ultimate truth, but just as interpretations of the current state of scientific knowledge.

More info at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1605299561
and at Ray's and Terry's site: http://www.rayandterry.com/TRANSCEND/

Saturday 13 September 2008

Book: Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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A book originally from 2007, about the importance of events that have very low probability of occurrence but very large impact if they do occur, and how to live so as to avoid being too seriously hit by the negative versions of such events (at least in the domains where it is possible), and how to benefit from the positive ones.

The discussed topics also include:

  • the widespread misuse of Gaussian distributions in areas where they do not apply;
  • confirmation bias (people tend to pick only the facts that support their theories);
  • scalability of professions (to serve more clients, the shoemaker needs to spend more time making shoes, but a writer writes a book once and prints / sells copies without additional effort when demand increases, but then again the writer has much larger risk of the product being not wanted by anybody);
  • empirical skepticism (systematic doubt plus preferring experiential knowledge to theorizing);
  • asymmetry of confirmations (i.e., one confirmatory example should not increase your confidence in the general correctness of a theory very much, but one counterexample does decrease the confidence in the correctness of a theory a lot);
  • falsifiability (instead of looking for confirmations, try to find cases that would prove your theory wrong);
  • narrative fallacy (our tendency to create stories that connect and explain events, even if those events might not be causally connected in reality);
  • how happiness depends on the frequency and size of positive or negative events, and how this dependence can reduce our eagerness to live so as to take advantage of rare but very large positive events;
  • the problem of silent evidence (we mostly hear only from / of those people / objects that have succeeded / survived, and draw incorrect conclusions due to this bias in our data set);
  • the problem that (mathematical) statistics is researched and taught mostly based on game problems that have strictly defined rules and known bounded outcome sets, but real problems do not have such constraints and require different approaches;
  • the expert problem (while in some disciplines there exist true experts, in others there are only people whose position as "expert" is not justified due to their lack of abilities to really explain or predict things);
  • how understanding fractals and power laws can help to reduce unpleasant surprises by rare powerful events, but still does not give us precise predictive instruments;
  • and much more.

So, in general, "Black Swan" is a great book filled with important, interesting and useful ideas. However, there were two problems that somewhat decreased my satisfaction with it. Firstly, the tone of writing tends to be occasionally quite arrogant. For me the frequent outright bashing and ridiculing is a warning sign of a person who has not reached the level of mental maturity of balance and goodwill (note that by immaturity I do NOT mean playfulness which I value a lot, but being inconsiderate and egoistic; also, I know that such type of ridiculing is widely popular and entertaining for many people, and we even have a special word for it in Estonian - ärapanemine - that I do not know how to translate, but still I consider such behavior unpleasant). Secondly, while most of the main ideas in the book I easily and eagerly agree with, some of the examples were in my opinion either not applicable in given context or even contrary to the main ideas, and sometimes so much so that I felt it necessary to double and triple check my thinking ("the author cannot possibly make such mistakes?!"), but to no avail. Apart from the possibility of me misunderstanding something, I had a hypothesis that the arrogant tone and occasional inconsistencies are intentional, so as to really engage readers' minds and make them think, but unfortunately it is more likely that they are not.

All in all, I quite highly recommend this book, but only to people who think and analyze what they read instead of just "downloading" everything to their unquestioning brains.

More info at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1400063515/

P.S. Thanks to Jan Dyre who gave this book to me!

P.P.S. If anybody organizes a discussion about this book (or, more generally, about the ideas it contains), I would be very happy to participate!

Tuesday 18 March 2008

Book: The Difference by Scott E. Page

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A book from 2007, about the positive and negative sides of diversity in human groups. The main focus is on the diversity of perspectives and heuristics, NOT identity diversity like race or gender.

The central point of the book is "The Diversity Trumps Ability Theorem" that applies to problem solving by groups. Roughly, it says that given the problem is difficult and the problem solvers are not stupid and no solution except the global optimum is a local optimum simultaneously for every individual in the group and both the initial problem solver population and the selected group are large enough, a randomly selected collection of problem solvers should outperform a collection of the best individual problem solvers. In the model that Page gives, the diversity always trumps ability, given those four conditions hold, but the book also describes how various human factors may make the theorem not work in some cases.

There's also "The Diversity Prediction Theorem": Given a crowd of predictive models, the Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity. Here a group of randomly selected predictors does not necessarily predict more accurately than a group of the best predictors.

The discussions in the book are well supported with mathematical / computer models (though details are left to referenced papers, keeping the text easy to read), and while it is in general pro-diversity, it is NOT slogan'ishly pro-identity-diversity, but instead specifies what kind of diversity is good in which situations, and what are the accompanying costs that may sometimes cancel out the benefits.

For me, the book was quite an interesting read.

More info at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0691128383 and at Princeton University Press: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8353.html

Friday 15 February 2008

Book: Life on the Edge

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A book originally from 1998, updated in 2001, about microorganisms that live in extreme environments.

The topics include:

  • The main things an (Earth) organism needs (energy, liquid water, etc.).
  • An overview of Earth's extreme inabited environments (hot springs, cold places, deep seas, deep terrestrial subsurface, deserts, very salty waters, places of extreme pH, oil).
  • The main molecular mechanisms to cope with stressful (extreme) conditions.
  • Practical usage of knowledge derived from extremophiles in biotechnology and medicine.
  • Relevance of extremophile studies to the hypotheses of what is the correct (real) family tree of life.
  • Gaia hypothesis.
  • Possibility of, and search for, the life elsewhere in the Universe.

It is an easy & pleasant to read popular science book that still retains some of the harder scientific contents (especially the most relevant parts of molecular biochemistry), which I think is a good approach (um, after reading comments at Amazon, I would rephrase that as "easy & pleasant for scientifically minded persons who have already encountered a few biochemistry texts earlier in their life" :D ). The author Michael Gross, though currently a full time science writer, has been an active scientist in the field of extremophilic microbiology.

More info at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0738204455/

Sunday 16 December 2007

Book: Musimathics, Vol 1, by Gareth Loy

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A book, published in 2006, about the mathematical and physical foundations of music. It covers musical representation, scales, tuning, intonation, physical basis of sound, geometrical basis of sound, psychophysical basis of sound, introduction to acoustics, vibrating systems, composition and methodology (including a glimpse of less usual approaches like using artificial neural nets).

In general, I really like this kind of book about sound and music that has a solid scientific background. Unfortunately in this specific book the background is not as solid as I was hoping. While reading it, especially the physics section, I quite often had problems like: "Er... am I not getting it or what? No, wait, it can't be like that. Damn, it must be wrong in the book!" And sure enough, there ARE errors in abundance. For a list of errors known to Gareth Loy himself, see: http://www.musimathics.com/Errata.html

The other problem was that occasionally the book was not written very clearly and / or captivatingly for me... (plus the feeling that in order to explain those concepts to somebody with a humanities background (who are clearly included in the target audience), the explanations should be significantly different). Though that was not a major problem for me: I still read through the whole book and got a lot of information out of it.

In conclusion, as much as I would have liked to, I cannot suggest this book as a very good one on this topic. There are other books available about the basis of sound and music, and I suspect some of those may have a more solid science and better explanations in them, but I haven't read any others, so I can't say for sure. Also, there's some hope that Musimathics itself will be revised in future editions.

More info at the book's homepage: http://www.musimathics.com/

and at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0262122820/

Sunday 2 December 2007

Book: Life at the Extremes by Frances Ashcroft

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A book originally from 2000.

Gives a good overview about what happens to physiological processes of humans in high altitudes, deep oceans (or other pressurized locations), hot and cold climates, outer space, and during physical exercise. Occasionally there are also a few notes about other animals, plus a whole chapter about extremophile lifeforms (mostly microorganisms), but all in all it's still a book about humans.

The book is very readable and aimed for the general public, but fortunately it still retains enough scientific information to be interesting for more serious readers as well (though unfortunately there seem to be a few factual mistakes, too; see the PubMed review). In general I liked it.

More information at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0520234200/

and at PubMed Central: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1119655

Monday 19 November 2007

Book: Signs of Life: How Complexity Pervades Biology

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A book by Ricard V. Solé and Brian C. Goodwin, originally from year 2000.

The cover gives an impression that the book is a discussion about what life is, but this is not the case. Instead, it is a good and relatively easy to read overview of a large number of tools and approaches that are often referred to as complexity science. There are deterministic chaos, emergence, criticality, self-organization, patterns in excitable media, entropy, Ising model, information theory, renormalization, self-similarity, sand-pile model, metabolic networks, genetic networks, cell differentiation, reaction-diffusion systems, biological clocks, neural nets, phase transitions, ant colonies, nest building in social insects, biodiversity, ecological stability, viral quasispecies, catalytic chemical networks, evolution and extinction, stock market fluctuations, urban growth, traffic models, etc.

As the page count is around 300, the book obviously doesn't go into great details of every concept, neither does it always have all terminology explained, neither is there a coherent overarching story. Thus I don't know if it would be a good reading for somebody who has never heard most of the presented ideas before, but for me it is a good collection of notes that can be used for sparking inspiration and for quickly remembering the key concepts, the details of which should then be looked up from other sources. So, in general I like it.

More information at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0465019285/

and if you have access to Wiley InterScience, then: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/97519452/

Tuesday 23 October 2007

Book: Emergence: From Chaos to Order by John H. Holland

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A book from 1998. It is apparently written with the goal to explain the concept of emergence to a broader audience, but I'm not so sure if the broader audience would actually like it...

While trying to make clear what emergence is, the book touches on the following subjects: model building (especially in computers), board games, game theory, machine learning, agent-based modeling, metaphors and innovation. For understanding and studying the essence of emergence, John Holland proposes a concept constrained generating procedures, explained by him as follows: "The models that result are dynamic, hence procedures; the mechanisms that underpin the model generate the dynamic behavior; and the allowed interactions between the mechanisms constrain the possibilities, in the way that the rules of a game constrain the possible board configurations."

I found the book somewhat interesting, but not particularly attractive.

More information at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0192862111

Sunday 23 September 2007

Book: Fundamentals of Computational Swarm Intelligence by Andries P. Engelbrecht

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A book from 2006, with a slightly misleading title. Actually it is only about Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Optimization, plus introduction to optimization and Evolutionary Computation in the first parts of the book. But as of PSO and ACO, it is a very clearly written and thorough review work -- there are 667 references.

The few more general sections occasionally seemed to me somewhat less substantial. For example the comparison of Particle Swarm Optimization vs. Evolutionary Computation quite strongly tries to separate them, while for me it seems that although it is very practical to have these different approaches, many of their underlying principles are overlapping quite heavily, if suitably interpreted (e.g. the trajectory of an individual in PSO should be compared to a trajectory of a generational family chain of parent-child successions in EC, and an explicit test should be done about whether such rules of EC could be found so that the trajectories would be similar to PSO, or vice versa. I haven't checked it, but at least reading the book didn't convince me that the check would fail.).

I would recommend the book to people who are seriously interested in Particle Swarm Optimization or Ant Colony Optimization. Those having a more general interest in swarm intelligence might find the book a bit limited in breadth, but flipping through it might be useful nevertheless.

More info at book's homepage: http://si.cs.up.ac.za/

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